How? Because it would seem that the island nation of Taiwan could hold the world and its handful of super powers by the cojones if it wanted to, by having a monopoly right now on the manufacture of the silicon needed to run the current and medium term revolution and global competition in AI.
I don't know, but it occurred to be it might be so, so I'm asking here for what you all think?
On the face of it "Taiwan is too small" to call the shots seems to send the idea packing...but the US, China and everyone else rely 100% on Taiwan supplying them with chips right now, so maybe it's not so simple. What do you think?
For anyone who accepts this thesis, what would Taiwan be asking for in return for this power? How would it be taking advantage of its moment? Or would other nations be too wary of Taiwan's monopoly to engage in backroom trading, not wanting to embolden or "give it ideas" ?
Seems an interesting and current dynamic, but I haven't heard the implications and second order effects discussed beyond the tired "relationship to possible war" narrative. So I think it's good to ask here to stimulate discussion and see if there's a consensus.
1. If TSMC disappears tomorrow, the US still has Intel to make chips. It'll be very bad for chip supply for a few years, but the US and its allies have all the tech to recreate most, if not all, of TSMC's services in 2-3 years in an emergency situation.
2. In 2025, China aren't allowed to make chips smaller than 7nm at TSMC. Destroying TSMC slows down the US more than China. At this point, TSMC basically only serves US customers so China doesn't lose much if TSMC goes down. It's probably better for China if TSMC disappears tomorrow actually.
3. China doesn't care that much about Taiwan's chip industry in the grand scheme of things. It's a nice bonus to have TSMC intact but it's not a must for them.
Unfortunately for Taiwan, they can't use TSMC as a leverage in any conflict with China because the US has forced them to stop selling advanced chips to China. If Chinese companies and US companies heavily rely on TSMC, then Taiwan would have more leverage. But as of right now, only US companies do.
Meanwhile, China is pouring resources into making their own EUV machines. The US still has Intel and it just forced TSMC to build more fabs on US soil. So Taiwan is losing more leverage every day.
i've said the hard truth which unsuprisely got flagged
> Taiwan is a puppet regime
most of western people, especially americans, don't know what 'a puppet regime' is, they thought it is an insult, no, that's the fact
you think like this because you thought the taiwan regime is an indepentent political power, who only serve its own people
that's simply not true
taiwan can only sacrifice benefits of taiwannese people to the US, to obtain its regime, that's why it gave TSMC to the US without any compensation, it's simply because they can not say 'no' to the US
Trump and TSMC announce $100 billion plan to build five new US factories
> https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-ceo-meet-with-trump-...
that's the reality just happened in less a month, you can not give a theis which violate the reality, it's pointless