https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c05ml3q2gn7o
Now, Europe doesn't really buy that many things from the US. What we do buy is services. For the HN crowd this generally means e.g. AWS/GCP services.
I work for a EU company with a (un)healthy AWS spend. Workloads are all in EU zones.
What is the likely outcome here, in case the EU decides to put some kind of "tariffs" on digital services from the US in their inevitable response?
Would AWS likely be able to avoid those tariffs for non-US workloads?
In the case where a European customer uses resources (and causes costs) in the US, there's a risk of losing money if the "tariff" never goes away, so they would likely have to raise prices for that use case to account for the risk.
If a European customer only causes costs in Europe, that risk is nil, so there wouldn't be a need to raise prices, but Amazon could decide that it's a good excuse to do so anyway.
Countries in Europe are covered by the EMEA SARL (Except for Turkey) https://aws.amazon.com/legal/aws-emea-countries/. When we generate invoices we look at your contact and billing addresses, and since they are EU we will have them come from the EMEA SARL. We may also have it come from a branch of the EMEA SARL if it exists in your country (for example Greece). If your business has a contract with AWS then the contract can override this behavior. AWS applies taxes under some circumstances, see https://aws.amazon.com/legal/aws-emea/.
With regards to tariffs, my understanding is that its a big maybe. EMEA SARL is a fully owned subsidiary of Amazon Web Service Inc. so for tariff purposes it may be treated as AWS Inc. Alternatively, the tariffs could be structured to only apply to US usage. Its the EU's choice. If the EU wants them apply to all AWS/GCP usage then they will.
And for at least the value of the paper it is written upon, the US Constitution prohibits taxes on exports.
So I think it is unlikely that an AWS price increase for Europeans would go to th United States Treasury. Bezos pockets sure, Treasury no.
Good luck.
import aws;