How do I identify the tech trends of 2026 and beyond?

Question

The blockchain/crypto craze didn&rsquo;t come out of nowhere in 2021 and generative AI craze didn&rsquo;t pop up out of nowhere in 2023Curious what indicators people suggest I look to if I wanted to identify future trends 2-3 years before they start to become popular.Sure there is no way to identify what or when with certainty (VR & the metaverse are a great example of something that seemed like it was gonna be hugely impactful a few years ago and hasn&rsquo;t materialized, yet at least ). But certainly there must be indicators.

jonahbenton · Accepted Answer

There are lots of techniques for making forward predictions- called projections- that look at investment curves and various inertial dynamics over circa 10 (at least) year timeframes.
Popularity itself is a fool's errand. Popularity is both manufactured and discovered, a stop motion virality. Some can create it but no one can predict it. The act of prediction changes the market.
And anyway, 2 years is basically tomorrow. It is not enough time for the capital investments occurring now to have material result. If you want to understand tomorrow you have to be looking back 10 years and tracing those investments through their maturation.

smarm52 · Answer

With mathematical models. People suck at predicting the future of complex socially driven domains. The popular pundits are some of the worst predictors, but they do make easy media to sell.Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?-New edition. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press.