I have about $50K in an index fund, own land worth $150K (paid off) and another $200K in industrial real estate investments.
Given this spread, what should I do with the cash? I'm not comfortable investing the entirety into an index fund, given the current socio-political climate.
I'm located in the Midwest, USA.
[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/ [2] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall
Over the the long term there is not really anything better to do with it than equities: the Great Depression, World War 2, gold standard retirement, 1980s inflation, etc. Even if you only invested in the peaks, you'd still do quite well over the decades:
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
Jumping in with a lump sum amount can be quite daunting, so what you can do instead is put in (say) 40K every month over the course of a year or so:
* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...
Certainly better than sitting in cash. If you're worried about volatility, then also invest in some bonds funds: 60% stocks, 40% bonds? If you want more growth, 70/30 or 80/20 maybe.
And while the S&P 500 gets a lot of the press, a total market fund is what Vanguard is steering their own employees to:
* https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bogle-explains-why-vanguar...
See also:
* https://www.pwlcapital.com/should-you-invest-in-the-sp-500-i...
The thing you should spend some time doing is deciding what your risk tolerance is and how much variance in your portfolio you can stomach. Then you can start talking investment strategies.
First, the urge to put money somewhere could be a problem. Examine why you feel this way - closely. It could be you're letting emotions take over and that's rarely a good thing.
Second, you didn't mention debts. If you have any, you might look at the interest rate (including government freebies) and compare that to the most likely return you'll get. If your interest rate is higher than your expected return, paying off the debt wins.
Third, what kind of reserve fund do you have? If you don't have 3-6 months of expenses in a ready cash, consider creating an emergency fund.
Fourth, if you have not maximized contributions to tax-advantaged accounts, consider doing that. If your employer offers a match, really consider that.
Fifth, avoid the temptation to tell others about your windfall.
Sixth, has someone helped you who is now in need? Think hard about it. If so, consider helping them out.
Seventh, be sure you understand the tax implications of receiving the money. How much will you owe, if anything. Make sure that money is securely set aside.
Eighth, if everything else is taken care of, think about the lifestyle you want to lead. Do you have enough money now to retire? How attractive does that possibility sound? Taking that path means taking less risk with the money.
It may be hard to realize, especially at times like this when the market doesn't seem to reflect reality, but when investing on a long time frame the best advice is always simply to put your money in and to not try to time the market. On a long enough time frame, it will all come out in the wash.
The key, of course, is "on a long enough time frame". If you think there's a reasonable chance you might need the cash in two or five years, then you should either significantly reduce your exposure to equities like the S&P 500 or eliminate it entirely. The question then, of course, is what do you put your money into? Well, there are plenty of options. While the S&P 500 returns around 9% before inflation, you have a number of options that are lower returns, lower risk. For that, you have the entire spread from a savings account (1% right now) to short term Treasuries (2%ish right now) to various kinds of bonds. The simplest way to get, say, 50% of the reward for 50% of the risk is to have (for example) 50% in SPY and 50% in Treasuries.
Whatever you do, good luck, and I highly recommend the Bogleheads forum for good advice on any situation.
A last word of caution: maximized returns come with maximized risks
Go to a fee-only financial advisor something like this https://www.feeonlynetwork.com in your state and take their advice that is a fiduciary. It will cost you a few hundred dollars but that is entirely worth it, we don’t know your whole tax and risk situation.
The government is printing an awful lot of money right now.
Keeping your money in cash isn’t a guaranteed return if inflation goes up significantly. You’re much better having it in assets with intrinsic value. (Stocks, real estate, etc)
I would suggest investing the money over the course of a couple years into an index fund, probably S&P 500 or total market.
Even if you invest at the worst possible times (right before crashes) you’ll come out way far ahead of leaving it in cash.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
It sounds like your asset allocation is currently:
- $50k "index fund" (S&P 500?) - $150k land/home - $200k industrial real estate - $450k cash
I would suggest you start at Asset Allocation [1] and as an example read through the "Three Fund Portfolio" [2]. Before this cash, you were nearly 90% real estate. At the very least, you can outperform "cash at a bank" by at least keeping that $450k in a Vanguard or similar Prime Money Market Fund [3]. So as you think about what to do, take the 1.3% or so :).
[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation
[2] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio
[3] https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/performan...
My random suggestion here is diversify in to a few different equities areas. US, international, etc. I mostly have a few 'general market' funds, but a couple that are focused on tech companies, and they've outpaced the general market over the last several years.
Keep some in cash - ally and others have around 1% return on cash. not great, but it's something. keep maybe $80k or so in there.
put some in general 'broad market' index funds - total market or S&P or something - maybe $150k in that.
find some international funds - put $80k in that.
pick a precious metals fund - put $40k in that. Alternative, take some of that and put in to crypto if you've got an interest in that.
This would leave you with around $150k. Consider some more real estate - perhaps just land and let it appreciate, or a small house you can use as a rental, or more industrial. Or just hold that in cash for a bit longer while you wait and see what happens. You already have $200k in industrial real estate. If you're comfortable with that, and you're getting a return that from area, increase your exposure there.
Watch the investments - readjust portions to your comfort level - perhaps every 3-6 months - as things change. Keeping cash will give you some cushion if there's a downturn, either to weather a storm, or give you some ability to throw a bit more in to a specific market.
There's no rule that says you have to put it all in one index fund right now. You're in a fortunate position, and can afford to take this slowly, and spend time learning more about these various instruments before blindly throwing in hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Part of that learning can (and probably should) be meeting with a fee-only advisor who can review your situation in more detail and give you a more comprehensive set of recommendations more suited to those aspects we can't tell from your post (risk tolerance, life goals, etc).
Use this money to max out all tax advantaged accounts available to you (401k, IRA, HSA), and invest the rest in a brokerage account. When in doubt, invest the money in a target date fund at Vanguard or Fidelity that most closely matches the date you plan to start withdrawing from the account. A total world fund/ETF, like VT, is also a fine option.
Long term VTSAX or FZROX are probably good places to hold most of that. You could keep $30k in cash for emergency fund.
The other comments suggesting the bogleheads forums are also right. Most of the other comments are a total disaster I’d be cautious about following any of the advice here (it’s also surprising to me how bad it is).
I also personally do some individual stock picks of companies I know in the field I’m in, but that’s still quite risky and not advised unless you like this kind of thing (Amazon, Apple, PTON, Nvidia, previously tsla). I hold long term for capital gains.
Long term index funds are the best bet, even if the market goes down you can wait it out if you’re young. If the current conditions scare you, you can “dollar cost average” entry which just means buying $X amount each month/week until you’re fully invested. Long term this kind of thing doesn’t matter though.
Are you looking to use the cash soon? If so you may want to not invest it. Being forced to withdraw is where the problems come from.
Don’t listen to anyone on here about bitcoin. That’s gambling, if you want to do that know it’s gambling and expect to lose everything.
In 2000 investors were screaming at buffet because he was sitting on billions in cash. They were saying he had lost his touch, he should pay a dividend etc.
Then in 2001 the crash happened and he was able to get some great deals.
The time to buy is when everyone else is saying dont buy, things have fundamentally changed.
Figure out how much that is, and leave it in cash or other extremely safe assets. This is a highly personalized number and it's hard to give good advice for it.
For the rest of your money, you now know that you'll basically never need to sell it. The only thing that matters here is the total return over thirty-plus years. This is broadly-diversified stock index funds - the standard boglehead advice works great here. There's always a risk that today's stock price is the best you'll ever see, so the historically superior plan for how to get money in the market is to just dump it all in and ignore the current price.
So yeah. Enough cash to make you "safe", rest in the stock market and ignore the current price and any price movements over the next three decades.
1. I don't like Index funds. They were a great investment in the past. They may be a disaster in the future.
2. "buy land they stopped making it" Mark Twain
3. "industrial real estate" could be top, could be a disaster, depending on what "industrial" means. Technology heavy REIT (IT, server, g5 infrastructure) could be okay.
You could go contrarian and keep it cash. You could diversify in foreign currencies. In the end, HN is not the right place to ask. I just recently invested in some Asian utilities companies. They pay 5-10% divendends. Have a telecom investment that pays 45% dividends. No kidding.
One word of wisdom: Do not do VC investments. I sunk a ton of money there. In for a penny, in for a dime and it will start sucking a tremendous amount of time out of you.
So, with $450k in cash, dedicate 450 hours of the next 1-2 years to build a solid education for yourself. Don't simply follow the specific advice that you feel makes more sense.
If you think this is a lot of time... 104 weeks in 2 years = you need to spend ~4 hours per week to educate yourself. Read 2 hours for 2 evenings per week. That's it.
Too much? Ok, cut it in half. 225 hours in two years. Still a great effort that will pay you back for the rest of your life.
This is above any specific tactical move or decision you can make.
If you are not willing to do this, then accept the fact that whatever decision you will make, you will have a higher chance to regretting it.
Quality stocks and real estate, typically hold their value as well during volatile times. Do not panic during short term crashes. These should be bought on ten-year+ time frames.
As things improve over the next few years you can start selling the gold and buying other hard assets again. If approaching retirement, it will be time to start moving into more conservative income options like dividend-stocks, bonds, etc.
The one thing you don't want to do now is leave a bunch of cash sitting around. It will get hammered.
You may also find interesting to read through https://www.reddit.com/r/fatfire if you'd like this to be your starting point towards retiring.
- underlying principles: Diversification, reduction of exposure to idiosyncratic risk (as opposed to systematic risk), Modern Portfolio Theory
Step 2: Invest $8,653.85 a week for the next year in your indices of choice.
- underlying strategy: dollar cost averaging
Step 3: If the market tanks in September because school re-openings ravage the country, invest the rest of your money at an accelerated rate.
Step 4: Continue to reinvest income steadily for the rest of your life. Never liquidate a diversified index because of a recession (this ruins the whole investing strategy).
Step 5: Gradually readjust your portfolio into lower risk indices before/during retirement based on your risk tolerance. Warning: Even if you have low risk tolerance, you must have a strategy to live off your earnings for the rest of your projected life span. Generally speaking, the lower your risk tolerance, the longer you have to wait before retiring (because bonds are guaranteed to provide low returns) or the larger your portfolio needs to be upon retirement.
I would wait until the news starts to sound so horrible you can’t help to do anything but invest.
As many have mentioned, placing it in an index fund is a good idea. I would go for that! But just wait until the market has the next downturn, invest, and don’t look back.
That's my plan at least
In general I would lean towards well managed active funds versus pure index funds. The markets are in a time that a good active manager can get you some added return.
With that said I'd probably lean towards something like the all-weather portfolio. See:
https://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/all-weather-portf...
Note: this portfolio does cost you some potential upside in good market conditions but with less down risk.
Disclaimer: I am a big fan of Ray Dalio who came up with the all weather portfolio. I have 7 figures in such a portfolio. For the equity and bond portion I use Vanguard active funds.
As to what to do with it? If interested in shares, a rule that I like is to invest in companies that make products that you like. Also, hopefully, you can make some assessment about the management of the company. If they are bringing a new product to the market, can you use your expertise to evaluate that product?
Michael Burry argues that Index Funds distort the market. Think lemmings. Better to use one's own judgement.
Is the sun always going to be shining? No, rainy days always come. In life, you will have both lucky and bad breaks. So make the most of your lucky ones.
And don't think you are a genius, when you make a lucky investment. Back to rule #1.
Maximize return needs input * when do you plan to use the money? * what does maximize mean to you (more money is not always what people mean: Examples maximize social good, maximize for long term use in a trust, etc)? * what are your goals?
There are many other questions that could be asked.
Recommend you hire a fee only financial planner.
Also take a personal finance class to help you understand the different types of investments you have (cash, index funds, real estate, land, etc) and to learn how each type of investment is measured over time.
Hope you find your path to your goals :)
That’s the portfolio I’m using, anyway. No currency hedging and slightly underweight (but not majorly so) wrt. the US.
Some US-based index fund strategies include only the US, but that leaves you less diversified. Though with better returns, historically.
Not sure why you’re leaving index funds so underweight in your strategy; curious what options you’re considering. There aren’t a lot unless your strategy is more along the lines of wealth preservation.
If I were you, I'd spend the money to enjoy my time with others I care about and donate the rest to others in need.
Finally, keep im mind: "past performance is no indication of future returns." This is more and more true.
I am in a nearly identical situation, within a few percent of your dollar amount.
Ive been looking for a while for a partner for a lifestyle business, something along the lines of a maker space but open to a wide variety of ideas, most of them somehow variations on buying a large commercial space cash and using the free rent to build a business that creates community.
Me email is in my profile, feel free to get in touch, if you'd be interested in brainstorming.
Residency comes with this.
You may use both if things in USA gets from bad to worse - from political, economical, financial and social aspects.
Why in the world would I recommend a single stock? For one, Berkshire is a "financial fortress" with virtually no debt, $100B+ in cash, and about a collection of dozens of wholly owned subsidiaries: GEICO, See's Candy, BH Energy, BNSF Railway, etc. Berkshire's so conservative that, although Buffett and Munger have acknowledged leverage could boost their returns, they refuse to take on obligations that would even create a 1 out of 100 year risk of failure. More importantly, I believe it's cheap at current prices (a little under $200 for each class B share). When you buy Berkshire, which has a market cap of ~$500B, you're getting $175B worth of stock $125B in cash, and the all the subsidiaries for $200B. And I'd bet the intrinsic value of those subsidiaries exceeds $200B by a substantial factor.
Risks: (1) The biggest problem is that Berkshire is already quite big. That makes it difficult to compound capital at large rates. But compared to the S&P 500 or the even-bigger tech companies, I'd rather be buying Berkshire, at least at today's prices. (2) Buffett and Munger's advanced age. This to me is not as huge of a problem as people make it out to be. Todd Combs (GEICO), Ted Weschler (investment manager), Greg Abel (non-insurance ops), and Ajit Jain (insurance ops) are extraordinarily talented... to say nothing about the leadership in the subsidiaries. And Berkshire's built such that it would be a great business even without these top-notch managers. (3) Time. This isn't a problem if you're happy to hold Berkshire for 20+ years. But markets are emotional beasts and stock prices can decline rapidly and unpredictably. Berkshire isn't a bond nor does it pay a dividend. So don't buy Berkshire if there's a risk that, 5 years from now, you'll need to sell or if you're the kind of person who can't deal emotionally with large short-term declines in stock prices.
Disclaimer: NOT investment advice. Just my personal opinion. I've been buying up more and more Berkshire in the past few weeks.
No investment advice offered here will be worth anything until you decide where you are on that spectrum.
If it were me, I would start looking for vacation properties which are selling as a steal. Then when the real estate market recovers, sell it. And enjoy the wealth that comes with it.
There isn’t a single answer.
Depends on factors such as:
- your goals (e.g. would this be for future retirement, for paying your kids’ education, etc.)
- your age
- your risk tolerance
- etc.
What about the socio-political climate makes your risk averse to investing into an index fund? And are you referring to all index fund, which can vary on many dimensions such as region, cap size, type (e.g. equity, bond), etc.
Else consider one of the Vanguard TargetDate funds if you have a target date to retire.
It's probably a little complicated for a layman, but I think it works pretty well, and is quite flexible.
Very few fortunes are lost by spending or excesses, they are mostly lost by bad investments and bad financial decisions
* It might be better to take your time and think long and hard before making any investment decisions
We are at a point of unbelievably crazy valuations and in the midst of a global pandemic
a lot of stuff is going to go tits up
There is almost nothing that can beat renting houses if you are a non finance expert
Invest it in software companies who develop in Haskell and Rust.
The whole point is that it doesn't cost much and it saves you time on learning about finance.
If you are interested in learning finance, then of course this might not be the best approach.
Another advise is to go long in the investment with some risk spreading according to your tolerance.
I wouldn't call the REIT cash either, but maybe that's more debatable.
Looking at where you have the money there is no rush to figure anything out. It's invested pretty well. Well enough to give you time.
To have anything better, one must learn a lot about investing and keep after it.
Also, you know your city, the local market and what the possibilities are much deeper than any corporation.
But couple the money printing with record low interest rates (and negative interest rates), this creates a special situation where gold (and other hard currency like bitcoin) outperforms. With a negative real rate on bonds, you will lose inflation adjusted purchasing power in bonds even if you come out positive. There are not a lot of great options right now.
You could also pursue investing in multifamily homes given you live in the Midwest.
Otherwise, as other people have said, it depends on your time frame and the amount of risk you are willing to take on. If you can wait 5+ years, a fund blending index tracking with some bonds (for stability) is an excellent option.
You maximize your returns by beating the market. You beat the market by being more clever than the market. Where do you have the resources to beat the market?
if you are maximizing stability, probably guaranteed return products around 2-3%
20 % in physical gold
10 % in Bitcoin
10 % in gold mining stock
30 % in cash
30 % reserved for the coming stock market crash (to pick up cheap blue chip stocks)
Source: gut feeling
Your return = time to do what you want.
20% Bonds
20% Real Estate
20% Cash
20% Bitcoin
Expect inflation over the next 10 years, so keep the land & real estate investments (good hedge against inflation). Also, there are strategic ways to use these for tax purposes...talk to a good tax lawyer.
Treat 10% as "gambling" money with investments. Try to pick some stock market sleepers.
Spread 60% across a few American Funds and/or Vanguard selections, depending on your risk tolerance. Also, max out a Roth IRA every year starting now.
Keep 7-10% in a savings account that's accessible for emergencies.
Put 7-10% into bond funds.
Take whatever's left and put into a down payment on more real estate, either for a personal property or investment property.
More real estate.
Gold.
Various index funds.
You are going to get a bunch of people talking about equities, Bogleheads, bla bla bla. Read the book “Expected Returns” and start pulling threads.
- If you'd like to make a dent into ones life, help someone out with a low income to achieve their goals. Like paying for a drivers license or buying a okay car so mom can bring her kid to school. With that kind of money you can help a lot of people. - If you want to use money to feel safe, put some money on therapy, to know you never needed it in the first place and to get to know yourself. Buy a piece of land for everyone to live on your family and friends. - Ego? Spend it on cars? Parties, everything that was unreachable and plaster your confidence. - Want more money? Invest it in arms, wind energy, or start your own fund in the balkans.
Up to you
As others have noted, we are printing cash and all assets valued in our currency are likely to be impacted.
Unlike gold, real estate should be able to generate cash and not cost you cash to hold.
They aren’t making more land. With rising sea levels there will likely be less land.
Midwest is a great place to invest. So is the south east.
If you want more information about what we do in these areas checkout our website:
http://www.accredited-capital.com
We are working to create returns for investors while also making a local impact by increasing levels of home ownership in areas that have routinely been overlooked by Wall Street.
Depending on your situation, these investments might also not be subject to tax.
Email me for more info if interested lcampbell (at) accredited-Capital (dot) com
If you can’t get that with passive investments over the next 30 years, the banks will have bigger problems than your loan.
Despite your risk aversion, consider putting some in a robo advisor (mix of bonds, index, foreign index, etc), to hedge against a spike in inflation, or a crash of just the US economy. The dollar has been falling recently. The robo will auto rebalance as the economic climate shifts.
As for the cash holding, you can at least get 0.35% at Wealthfront in a cash account. (Does anyone know of a higher return cash account?)
Bond yields are slightly higher, but not much these days.
I’m in a similar position, and am also betting on a crash soon.
I have been putting 2-5% into a robo every few weeks (when the market flinches). It’s been a bad strategy (I should have gone all in a month or so ago), but it’s better than 100% cash. If the market hasn’t crashed in a year or so, I’ll be all in.
I bet against the market for most of the Obama administration (because the bailout / zero interest rates didn’t seem sustainable). Clearly, that was a mistake.
You can’t beat the fed, and right now, the fed is printing unlimited money to prop up ETFs and issuers of junk bonds. Also, investors are holding record amounts of cash, and are slowly putting it back into the market in seek of yields.
Good luck.
Maybe bear ETFs or put options against stocks that have performed well over the year if you're really looking to drop money into something, but that's pretty risky in itself.
Also, be cautious if thinking about any crypto investments in the next month or so. Short term is way over bought for BTC, but towards end of fall into winter when the price corrects a bit could be a good time to invest a conservative amount.
Just holding and waiting out the coming storm is the safest way to go at the moment imo
2. Buy and hold Bitcoin for a while. (longer is better).