How likely is a US revolution?

Very unlikely. The constant outrage from reporters and verified twitter accounts does not reflect the majority. The average American doesn't really care about the issues you listed. They may virtue signal and say "oh it horrible that tech platforms are censoring people" but they won't stop using those platforms. With unemployment benefits that pay more than working, the unemployed aren't going to be upset when they can't find work.

The average American is content with letting the government and corporations fuck them in the ass while they are told and believe that they have freedom.

Almost all of the examples you listed occurred following a war, an intervention/support by foreign powers, or an unsustainable system collapsing.

For the US, the first two are extremely unlikely to happen, while the third is still essentially harmless if the US is the global hegemonic power and if Americans in general continue to desire national unity. While people are critical of aspects of America, most still believe in the fundamental idea and structure of the country (unlike say, the constituent USSR states.)

I don’t see any of these things changing anytime soon, so no, I would say there will not be a revolution in the next 20 years. There may be massive democratic change, but this is expected. The media and Reddit specifically is not reality and I’d be skeptical of basing your analysis on such sources.

The appetite for revolution is wildly overblown by reporting and the internet. And people are underestimating the commitment it takes to have a true revolution.

On the right, even the angriest keyboard commando uncle still wants To be home before dark.

On the left, there hasn’t even been the commitment to even stage a single 1-day general strike.

The truth is we’re still angry as a hobby. Most people are angry about aesthetic concerns, about the way the country should feel or look. That’s not revolution material.

> Many countries have undergone revolutions or schisms in the past century: Arab Spring countries, Soviet Union, Cuba, China/Taiwan, Korea, Yemen, etc.

The US is nothing like those countries. As a matter of fact, all the "schisms" in the countries you listed are due to the US.

> Recently there have been major catalysis for social unrest, including: increasing economic inequality, novel technological shifts (automation, social media disinformation and censorship), and climate change affecting industries and migration.

Most of the population is in the eastern hemisphere ( 6 billion people ). Whatever problems occur with climate change, migration, etc they are going to have to deal with it, not the US or the western hemisphere. As for social media, most of it is under US control so not much to worry about there. It's europe, india, china, middle east, etc who have to worry about social media destabilizing their countries. And I suspect, it will be the US spearheading the destabilization.

> What are your thoughts on the likelihood that the US will experience a massive upheaval and what precautions can be taken?

Pretty much zero. The Arab Spring countries, Soviet Union, Cuba, China/Taiwan, Korea, Yemen, etc. all experienced upheavals because of major foreign interference by a much stronger nation - aka the US. We are the ones that put pressure on the soviet union until it cracked. We are the cause of the isolation and suffering in cuba. The china/taiwan conflict is entirely a US creation. Same with korea. Even yemen is a result of our interference via saudi arabia.

We have no equal to even challenge us, let alone destabilize us to the point of revolution. There is a reason why during times of trouble, the world - including china - buys dollars/us treasuries/etc.

In other words, we create schisms around the world, we don't suffer from it.

Democracies have a built-in pressure valve to allow unrest to disperse, that is voting. Instead of feeling the need to resort to violence to have political agency, people vote.

Dislike growing inequality? You probably voted for Sanders. Want a return to the pre-Trump days? You likely voted for Biden. Dislike the quarantine measures? There are lawmakers who represent your perspective.

Once a critical mass of disaffected people is reached, they wind up having their candidates win elections, which subsequently disperses that pressure. While the most passionate people are still wearing campaign badges for their favorite representative, the chances of "revolution" seems unimaginable.

Nope.

Most of what you see in social media and mainstream media is intended to spark discussions, get eyeballs/likes/follows and go 'viral' (in the digital sense).

Most people that disagree with the politics of people in office can vote them out. None of the countries you listed, to my knowledge, are places where every citizen has that capability.

There have been massive differences in the US since foreigners came here (i.e. non Native Americans). They all brought their own cultural, religious and other beliefs with them.

You should check out the book American Nations by Colin Woodard [0] it goes into detail about how these different areas formed and who settled those areas pretty much dictates present day politics. These aren't new concepts either - political parties use these to decide where to campaign for decades now. A map that represents the areas in question. [1]

0 - https://www.amazon.com/American-Nations-History-Regional-Cul...

1 - https://www.businessinsider.com/the-11-nations-of-the-united...

Edit: answered the question.

A US revolution is an almost certainty over the coming decades - the American identity has never been weaker.

The peoples are so different region to region - and are often politically hostile to one another - what keeps everyone together?

The real question is how violent will the revolution be? I hope there is peaceful secession.

A country where people give excuse such as "second amendment" on the topic of gun control when kids get slaughtered in schools I don't think US citizens have the ability to think of a revolution. Revolutions require amalgam of intelligentsia and people with courage. The elites in US(and some other countries) have successfully dumbed down the general populous and rendered them ineffective of revolutions. The people in US will be sold more guns and underground bunkers to hide and kill intruders than to join a revolution.

With politics so tribal and voters so easily influenced by adtech, one might argue that the revolution has already quietly happened.

Massive upheaval yes, revolution no. I would say there is a reasonable chance that the USA dollar will lose reserve currency status in the next 10 years. When/if this happens then everything will change - for an historical parallel look at Great Britain before and after the Great War.

You might have civil disobedience, maybe even on a mass scale with some politicians or states joining in or condoning it. I don't think there will be an actual revolution.

I think we are 50-50 we will have widespread riots before the end of the year. People were already primed for revolution with Black Lives Matter, #meToo, Occupy movements, etc. With the recent rise in hate groups, we were already on a path toward what happened in 1992 with the Los Angeles Riots [1]. I think the lockdowns due to COVID-19 and the related effect on the economy, we might be accelerating the pace.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots

A revolution is highly unlikely, but I give the odds of some irreversible structural change (eg fragmentation) within the next 10 years >50%.

I think the state has enough disparate forces that are both reactionary and armed so that no revolution can succeed.

check out "it could happen here"